POLITICO Playbook Podcast: Josh Shapiro's Pennsylvania Coattails Face Tuesday Test

POLITICO's daily politics show The Playbook Podcast led its Friday, Oct. 30, episode, titled "Shapiro takes the inside track," with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro four days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. "Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is eyeing a big reelection win. But the stakes for one of Democrats’ most closely watched rising stars go well beyond Tuesday," the episode description on Apple Podcasts reads. The episode runs about 25 minutes.

According to that morning's POLITICO Playbook newsletter, published under the headline "Shapiro waves the flag" and written by Adam Wren, Dasha Burns and Will Steakin, Burns and Steakin used the episode to analyze what is at stake for Shapiro beyond his reelection. The newsletter said the episode also covered President Donald Trump struggling to stay on message, California Gov. Gavin Newsom "stirring the pot" in Republican Ken Paxton's Texas Senate race, new Senate polls and a 200-second interview with former Michigan state lawmaker Mari Manoogian.

A test of Shapiro's coattails

Playbook reported that Shapiro "appears headed for a double-digit blowout" over Trump-backed Republican Stacy Garrity, and that his coattails will be put to the test on Tuesday. According to the newsletter, Shapiro has put Democrats on the brink of flipping four hotly contested congressional seats and has put the Republican-controlled state Senate in play, potentially setting up Pennsylvania's first Democratic trifecta since 1993. Playbook reported that Shapiro "plowed $7 million from his own campaign fund" into what it called a state-first strategy.

PennLive reported on Oct. 23 that the money Shapiro had steered to Democratic Party efforts for the state House and Senate had topped $10 million, including about $1.5 million to the state party, $1 million to the House Democratic Campaign Committee and $2 million to the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee that month. Republicans hold a 27-23 majority in the state Senate, PennLive reported. WENY News reported that 25 of the chamber's 50 seats are on the ballot this year and that Democrats would need to keep all of their current seats and flip three to take control; in a 25-25 tie, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, if reelected, would allow Democrats to control which bills are brought up for a vote.

"[We] have this historic chance to flip the state Senate, expand our state House majority and obviously reelect the governor," Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chair Eugene DePasquale told POLITICO Magazine's Kathy Gilsinan, according to Playbook. Speaking at a stop where he urged an audience of about 100 people to vote for Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, who is running against Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, and state Senate candidate Brian Wrightson, who is challenging Republican Sen. Rosemary Brown, Shapiro told Playbook: "If we can win enough seats here in Pennsylvania to change the balance of power in Washington and be a check on Donald Trump, then we can both hold the president accountable and get stuff done in Washington."

He added: "So I’m not focused on the sort of political story. Respectfully, you’ll write that. I’m focused on the tangible results we can deliver if we win." Asked at Pocono Raceway about his 2028 aspirations, Shapiro told Playbook, "If this is a metaphor," adding, "it’s for finishing the race strong." In a companion POLITICO article by Wren, Shapiro said: "We may have a lead, but you’re coming down this home stretch. People are nipping at your heels." He continued, "You’ve got to run hard."

What the polls show

Public surveys have shown Shapiro with a wide lead. A Franklin & Marshall College poll of 808 registered Pennsylvania voters, conducted Oct. 7-18, found Shapiro ahead of Garrity 52% to 30%, PoliticsPA reported, adding that it was the fifth consecutive poll to show the governor at least 20 points ahead. A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,159 likely voters, conducted Oct. 1-5 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, found Shapiro at 59%, Garrity at 34% and Libertarian Ken Krawchuk at 2%. Playbook separately reported that just one-quarter of Americans think political polls are accurate, according to The POLITICO Poll.

The rest of the rundown

On Trump's closing schedule, Playbook reported Friday morning that his weekend events in Kansas and Iowa had been scrapped as he shifted toward more than a dozen tele-rallies. NBC News later reported that the White House had rescheduled the rallies for Sunday in Salina, Kansas, and Dubuque, Iowa. "The rallies were rearranged for scheduling purposes to accommodate nearly 20 additional tele-rallies that were recently added to the President’s schedule," a source familiar with the plans told NBC News. Trump was also scheduled to appear Friday in Daytona Beach, Florida, campaigning for Republican Rep. Randy Fine and Sen. Ashley Moody, NBC News reported.

In Texas, Paxton, the state attorney general and Republican Senate nominee, canceled a campaign rally scheduled for Nov. 1 in El Paso, KFOX14 reported, and his team was evaluating whether to reschedule it. Paxton faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. "Ken Paxton is canceling rallies because nobody is showing up," Talarico told CNN on Thursday, Newsweek reported. Newsweek reported that Paxton's team attributed the El Paso postponement to scheduling and logistics, and that a YouGov poll of 1,000 Texas registered voters conducted Oct. 13-21 gave Talarico 50% to Paxton's 45%, while a Fox News poll of 1,398 likely voters conducted Oct. 15-19 had the two tied at 49%.