POLITICO Playbook Podcast Examines Democrats' $36 Million Epstein Ad Push Before Midterms

POLITICO's daily politics show The Playbook Podcast devoted its Monday, Oct. 26, episode, titled "The Epstein election?," to Democratic campaign spending on ads tied to the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. "Democrats have spent over $20 million dollars on Epstein-related ads. Will it be enough to flip the Senate?" the episode description on Apple Podcasts reads. The episode runs about 22 minutes.

On the show, Dasha Burns and Adam Wren "weigh in on Democrats’ expensive push to keep Epstein in the midterms conversation," according to that morning's POLITICO Playbook newsletter, which ran under the headline "The Epstein election" and noted that Election Day was eight days away.

The spending behind the ads

The Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has spent more than $20 million on Epstein-related ads in Senate races in Alaska, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas and Georgia, according to a spokesperson for the group quoted by Playbook. Across House and Senate races, Democrats have spent about $36 million on Epstein-related ads, Playbook reported, citing an AdImpact analysis. The Washington Examiner also reported both figures, citing POLITICO.

Playbook reported that the Epstein case has become shorthand for a broader Democratic argument about corruption, an issue that 88% of voters said they were extremely or very concerned about in a recent Fox News poll, compared with 85% for inflation and high prices. Jesse Stinebring, co-founder and CEO of the Democratic firm Blue Rose Research, which works with the Senate Majority PAC on polling used to inform the ads, told Playbook: "It’s a critical plank in a larger argument that we’re prosecuting the cycle." He added: "I think that Epstein has become emblematic of this larger system that Americans feel is rigged against them."

Earlier in October, POLITICO reported that internal Senate Majority PAC polling of more than 4,500 voters, conducted by Blue Rose Research, found that a 44% plurality of voters think the Epstein issue is "serious" and that Republicans should be held responsible. State-level research from the PAC found that the ads can shift races three to six points in Democrats' direction, according to the same report.

Republicans describe a turnout risk

According to Playbook, the ads are not necessarily meant to persuade Republican voters to back Democrats, but to keep some of them from voting at all. "It’s problematic," one senior Republican official working on midterm elections told Playbook. "It’s designed at making frustrated Republican voters who are a little soft right now more frustrated and more soft." A Republican pollster described the aim to Playbook as "Republican base suppression."

Playbook also described an ad from Scott Colom, the Democratic Senate nominee in Mississippi, featuring a lifelong Republican voter named Mark who broke with Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith over her vote to block the release of the Epstein files. Colom told Playbook that the voter had said, "They lied to me about that. They’ll lie to me about anything." A spokesperson for Hyde-Smith did not respond to a request for comment, Playbook reported.

The Washington Examiner reported that the ads typically focus on donors connected to Epstein, incumbents' votes against releasing the Epstein files or references to candidates in the files, and that some Republicans have run their own ads tying Democrats to sex offenders, including one targeting Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton.

New POLITICO Poll and a House Democratic report

A POLITICO Poll published Wednesday, Oct. 28, in Playbook PM found that 55% of Democratic midterm voters say ads linking candidates to Epstein are fair game, and 35% say such an ad would make them think less of the candidate being attacked. Republican midterm voters were more divided, with 47% saying such ads are fair game and 35% saying they cross a line. The poll was conducted by PF Global.

Also on Oct. 26, House Judiciary Committee Democrats, led by ranking member Rep. Jamie Raskin, released a staff report calling for an independent special counsel to investigate Trump's alleged ties to Epstein, according to a committee Democrats' press release and NBC News. "There is more than sufficient evidence to launch a criminal investigation," the report says, according to NBC News. Playbook reported that House Democrats are making clear they plan to continue that line of inquiry if they retake the majority.

Trump has repeatedly denied any knowledge of or involvement in Epstein's criminal activity, NBC News reported. White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis said, according to NBC News: "None of these allegations are true. This ‘report’ is nothing more than a desperate attempt by crazed Democrats to distract Americans from the surging Republican momentum driven by President Trump’s historic achievements."